“What are the Odds…”

Let’s talk probability.  Probability and stopping power.

Probability is just the odds, that one thing will happen as compared to another.  Las Vegas is built on understanding odds.

Lets just use the bottom 4 cards, shall we?

We’re concerned with independent odds, that two separate outcomes are not connected. For example,  I’ve got four index cards with 1 through 4 written on them.  I show you the blank side and ask you to select a card.  What are the odds you’ll select card 2.  It’s one in four.  We have a gut feeling about that calculation.

Now I’ll change the game.

I ask you to select a card that is either 2 or 3.  Your odds go up to one in two.  The math of independent actions is simple and looks like ¼ plus ¼ equals 2/4 or ½.

What are the odds of a single round of handgun ball or performance tactical ammo (body hits only) will stop a VCA?

Each round fired has it's own unique probability, from  zero (miss) to 100% (stops trying to kill you) 

 I suspect the reason is each round impacting the body has its own unique stopping power probability.  These can’t be calculated in advance as there are too many variables.  It’s very easy for the coroner to say, ‘this one is the round that produced the fatality,’ but we are interested in the one that stopped the fight, not caused death.

The same thing occurs with rifle.  I know, you want to believe that one round of 5.56x45 NATO or 7.62x51 NATO body hit will stop anyone not in hard armor.  But I don’t believe that.  It happens, but not consistently.  They may die minutes later, maybe the next day, but motivated men and women have stayed in the fight despite being wounded.

There are a lot of resources you can go to.  Television will suggest one round stops anyone except for the dramatic conclusion.  Let’s discard this source.

  

Handgun Ammunition Stopping Power by Evan Marshal, Hatcher's Theory Of Relative Stopping Power or FBI Handgun Stopping Power are reputable sources.   But do you believe them?

From an armchair commando point of view, no.  Shot placement counts more than the type or caliber of the round.  But shot placement in an actual fight is a rather exotic phenomenon.  Too often we read of trained men and women who shoot eight times when under fire and hit twice in non-dynamic places, despite their training and ability to perform-on-demand center of mass hits. 

So let’s make up a number that might seem more realistic.  In real firefights, not shooting tethered Strasburg goats, a one-shot-stop, excluding head shots, with any practical carry handgun, is about 30 percent or 3/10.

What are the odds that two rounds will stop the fight?  That’s 3/10 plus 3/10 equals 6/10 or 60 percent.  Humm, the double tap seems more reasonable now doesn’t it?  But it’s your life!  Do you like 60 percent?

The same calculation for 3 and 4 hits produce 90 percent and 120 percent outcome.

Will four hits stop everyone?  My reading suggest no.  There are bullet sponges that seem to soak up rounds.  They very often die hours, days later, but we need to stop now!  One example would be Platt and Matix during the 1986 FBI shootout. ers refers to high probability shots in his teaching.  Using the same simple calculation it becomes understandable why we typically shoot a VCA three or more times.   We are not attempting to make him suffer or necessarily kill him, just stop him.  Death is an unintended consequence of their actions.

Any trainer who preaches the gospel of one-shot-stops with performance ammo is a false prophet.  Don’t fall for falsies.

Incorporate a mixture of center of mass double and triple taps in your practice.  Any opportunity that requires you to shoot an unspecified number of rounds to stop a target should be pursued. 

Break the conditioned training of two rounds to neutralize a target. 

We shoot until the threat is stopped.  Always remember that.