Get Out Now!

As I write this, there are 135 people dead from the flood occurring the early morning of July 4 in the Texas Hill Country.  The hows, whys, and pointed fingers will continue for years.  But there is a lesson.  Set your own mental trip wire and be some of the first out.

I can't help but reflect on go bags.  Even the federal government recommends go bags to help you with emergency evaluations.  There is no question of their value, but what do you put in them?

There are many, many websites, YouTube videos, and books available on this subject.  Most of them want to sell you something.  Check out Amazon for go bags.  You'll find some with individually wrapped single servings of water, protein bars, first aid kits (some with tourniquets, most without), and small fixed-blade knives.  I've seen kits with Potassium Iodine, but not with Prussian Blue.  Nuclear accidents call for both.

Is this your go bag?  With individually wrapped water? 

You'll see promotions of people trekking through groomed forests with backpacks, or clean, groomed people enjoying a fire dressed in fashionable, neat outdoor clothing, sitting on logs, stumps, and the occasional stool.  What you and I will experience will be dirty, disheveled, and frightened people sitting on dirt trying to keep a fire going while they scan the darkness.  

Do I have a recommendation?  Sure.  I recommend a full tank of gas, a roll of small denomination bills, and getting on the road before everyone else.  Imagine a developing disaster involving your part of the community.  While everyone else is stumbling out of their house, wondering what to do, you should be pulling out of your driveway.

But you can't anticipate everything, can you?  Some things are beyond our control.

Let's start with:

Everything is connected.  An evacuation decision tree would fill pages and still not be useful.  Here are a few questions to think about:

You're going to hoof canned food, a case of water?

What season is it, and what's the weather like?  A go bag packed with winter clothing is not very useful in the northern hemisphere in July.  Changing out the contents of your out-the-door bag is obvious.

What's the disaster?  Some disasters happen with no warning, others develop over time.  Losing electric power in winter isn't as bad as massive flooding or encroaching forest fire.  An earthquake centered in a farming community in Iowa doesn't have the same complexity as that magnitude quake in downtown Chicago.

Where are you?  Civil disturbances are less likely in the country than in downtown Cleveland.  Tornadoes, flash floods, ice storms, and fire impacting isolated communities may have a smaller total damage as compared to major cities.  But they also have fewer resources to deal with it.

Can you anticipate a disaster?  Sure.  Historic events repeat.  The wildfire you experienced three years ago is likely to recur.  The tidal surge from the ocean storm last year will happen again.  Take steps in advance.

How long before things return to something resembling normal?  A power outage on a hot summer day could be corrected within 24 hours.  An ice storm that shatters poles, downs wires, and damages substations could take a lot longer.  A fire that burned yours and all your neighbors' homes will take months to replace.  Flash floods that wipe the land clean and create debris fields will take years.  

The recommendation of experts of having three days' worth of supplies sounds suspect to me.  Even if FEMA and the Red Cross swing into action immediately, you might need to self-rescue for more than three days.  In Texas, it was 72 hours before FEMA was authorized to act.

I hope one of the books is about survival.  The TP is good idea.

None of the above images has a knife or fire making ability.

Where are you escaping to?  How safe is the destination?  Imagine escaping to your cabin in the woods, only to find your neighbors have looted it, taken it, and are denying you and your family access.

The police come through your area and want you to go to an emergency shelter set up by the Red Cross.  Is it safe?  Or are you about to create a new chapter of "Lord of the Flies?"  Should you go?  Take weapons?  Or should you shelter in place?

Some experts recommend that if you own a secure, reachable location, you should stock it with clothing and supplies.  I agree, but my paranoia whispers about hidden storage areas, and not telling everyone about your retreat.  Instead of making the cabin look like a vacation resort, a more barren, abandoned line shack appearance might serve you better.

Any weapons you carry should be small and concealed.  No, No, No, you don't need a .45ACP.  Nobody has ever complained of not being shot enough with a .22.  Nobody should know about them, especially your younger children. 

Cash is always king.  Computers can be down, and credit cards are useless, but people will take cash.  Keep several stashes on you and other responsible adults.  Keep a well-hidden primary stash on you holding most of your money.  Then have a working stash and an emergency stash with just a bit of cash in both.  Both should contain just a few fives, tens, and singles.  Don't let anyone see you flash a wad of bills.  It's like rubbing yourself with bacon and then walking in bear country.

The Red Cross teaches that when you open a shelter, your next job is to start working to close it down.  Do the same, as soon as you get into a shelter, start working to get out of the shelter.

What would I want to have?  I know I want the medication we need.  Several changes in underwear, two changes in outerwear, and layers to protect me from the weather.  Gore-Tex raincoat, hat, long-sleeved shirt, tee shirt, and wool sweater in cold weather.  Work gloves are always helpful!

Plastic garbage bags and duct tape have several uses, several thermal blankets are important, and yes, I accept the belief you need three ways to start a fire.  Water filtration and purification is a must.  Some systems let you filter the large crud and then treat with chemicals to kill everything else.  Even tap water can become compromised.  Stick with compact, low-energy systems.  There may not be an electrical source available.

Cell phones are important.  They are communication, information centers, and navigational aids.  But they need electricity.  Control your use.  Recharge/top off every chance you get.  An external battery isn't the worse thing to pack.  Learn to entertain yourself and your children with a deck of cards and storytelling and not phone games. 

You need copies of all your important papers.  You can prep this by scanning documents in advance and storing them on a thumb drive.  You can also email them to yourself and store them in folders in a mail server.  I'd make copies of driver's license, passport, marriage and birth certificates on water-resistant paper.  Having similar copies of insurance and medical cards, and bank account numbers is also a good idea.  Do you need power of attorney or living will?  Property ownership, deeds, diplomas, and professional licenses can be retrieved later.  Use a thermal printer that melts the image onto the paper.  Inkjets can wash away.  Ensure all responsible adults have hard copies and copies on thumb drives.

What are you doing with the stuff left behind?  Your options are limited.  A safe or lock box may not be found if your house washes away.  If your home is damaged or burned, a secured firebox could be safely recovered.  Looters are a complication, even if you are not present.  The secured fire box should be hidden, immovable, and protected.  A little preplanning and work can place your box somewhere that isn't likely to be found by looters.  It needs to be somewhere you can quickly access because you'll have little time in an evacuation.

Leave the rich stuff at home in a secure place.  This is no time to show up at a shelter with a $5000 wrist watch or wearing a half-ounce gold coin as jewelry.  You don't want to attract attention to yourself after the rescue or in a shelter.  Showing up at a safe motel 30 miles from a disaster wearing an Omega Speedmaster watch could bump you into the 10X rate category, because the clerk knows you can afford it.  If you must have the bling, keep it hidden.

What will you carry it in?  It's obvious you can take more if you're evacuating by vehicle.  Still, you could find yourself needing to hump your contents some non-trivial distance if the vehicle breaks down or is blocked.  Backpacks are recommended as they leave both hands free.  REI, an acknowledged outdoor specialty company, recommends no more than 20% of your body weight, with an upper limit of 30 pounds.  If you are fit, healthy, and the distance needed to be covered is short, this might be a doable solution.

From the little I know, evacuation is one, horrible, and two, a highly personal matter.  Years ago, on the Outer Banks, an incoming ocean storm carried the potential for evacuation.  I filled up our gas tank earlier in the day, we packed a few things, and mentally tabulated the few no-cook foods we had, and blankets we would jam into the truck.  We decided that if the radio announced the governor was thinking about evacuation, calling up the national guard, or the weather looked dangerous, we would drive away.  The best outcome of that decision would be that we lost a night in Avon, NC, stayed at an inland hotel, and felt foolish.  The worst would be other people died. 

Make your plans accordingly.